India-China bilateral trade hit a record $73.9 billion last year.
The India-United States relationship is set to expand under the Donald Trump administration, but there could be some unease on issues like imports, tariffs and immigration, strategic affairs experts said after the Republican leader won the fiercely contested presidential election.
Existing trade deals, especially the 2009 pact with the Asean bloc, have been panned by the Centre for not boosting exports but flooding the domestic market with cheap imports. Subsequently, New Delhi has called for reviewing FTAs with Japan and South Korea. Going by that, a trade deal with the US is unlikely to be beneficial, say experts.
'The touchstone is reciprocity which will be applied to friends and foes alike.' 'It will be a bitter pill to swallow.'
The growth in world trade is expected to slow down to one per cent in 2023, due to global uncertainties, according to a WTO forecast. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has also projected a growth of 3.5 per cent in global trade this year, as against the April estimate of 3 per cent. World trade is expected to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023, as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy, the multi-lateral body has said in a statement.
The government is committed to restrict the fiscal deficit at 3.4 per cent of GDP as envisaged in the Budget.
India's exports declined by 6.86 per cent to $34.48 billion in August this year as against $37.02 billion in the same month last year, government data showed on Friday. Imports too declined by 5.23 per cent to $58.64 billion as against $61.88 billion recorded in August 2022.
"I think very soon. We are doing very well. (US Trade Representative) Robert Lighthizer who is right here negotiating with India... I think, very soon we will have a trade deal," Trump told reporters when asked if there is any trade deal is expected between India and the US.
Oct-Dec current account deficit narrows
The order would ensure that the US fully collects all duties imposed on foreign importers that "cheat".
All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Telecommunication tanked 2.18 per cent, metal (1.77 per cent), auto (1.70 per cent), energy (1.64 per cent), oil & gas (1.59 per cent), commodities (1.39 per cent) and financial services (1.37 per cent) were the major laggards.
Exports rose by a marginal 2.73 per cent to $28.9 billion in September, but trade deficit more than doubled to $14.2 billion in the month due to a surge in gold imports.
Lead indicators suggest that domestic current account deficit (CAD) is likely to reduce in 2023, while macro-economic stability has received a boost from inflation being brought back to the official tolerance band, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) January 2023 Bulletin. "With the merchandise trade deficit reaching an all-time high of $83.5 billion in a quarter, and a rise in net outgo from the income account, the current account deficit increased to 4.4 per cent of GDP in Q2FY23," the State of the Economy article in the bulletin said. "It is noteworthy, however, that the CAD for Q1 was revised down from 2.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent on account of downward adjustment in Customs data.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
'The market's nervousness ahead of anticipated US tariffs has led to a significant downturn in Indian equities.'
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
When India's Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma met his counterpart in Beijing last year, he spoke mainly about India's yawning trade deficit and China agreed that this was a problem that needed fixing.
Any downward revision from the current 'Baa3' rating means junk status for the country.
India's widening current account deficit (CAD), driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD forecast to $45 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP by March. According to a report by British brokerage Barclays, the worries arise from the fact that the trade deficit has been jumping continuously since July. From an average monthly trade deficit of $12 billion till June, it has jumped to $16.8 billion in July-October, with September showing the highest-ever trade deficit on record at $22.6 billion, the report said.
'And America will invite India in to have really an extraordinary opportunity and relationship with us.'
The banking system neared Rs 1.47 trillion of liquidity deficit on Monday, the highest since January 29, 2020, when the banking system liquidity deficit went up to Rs 3 trillion. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) injected Rs 1.47 trillion on Monday and Rs 1.46 trillion on Tuesday. Market participants say that the disbursement of Rs 25,000 crore as the second tranche of incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) will not be enough, and the liquidity might tighten further to Rs 2 trillion in short term due to tax outflows and arrival of the festival season.
India's exports dipped marginally by 0.76 per cent to $35.24 billion in July, though the trade deficit tripled to $31.02 billion during the month, according to official data revealed on Tuesday. The imports in July went up to $66.26 billion from $46.15 billion in the corresponding month last fiscal. "Exports of $156.41 billion in first four months of the fiscal puts us on track to achieve $470 billion in the current fiscal comfortably," commerce secretary B V R Subrahmanyam said while giving details about the trade data.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
'Modi's intention was to create goodwill that will allow India to be seen by Trump as more than just a bad tariff problem.' 'He succeeded brilliantly on that count but none of these wins are unfortunately permanent.' 'Modi will have to do this again and again if Trump's grievances are to be durably assuaged.'
'If in our cities, all urban bus transport services are free, then the taxpayers are paying for it, or if electricity were to be made free, that's a huge cost to the rest of the people'
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Apple's ambitious strategy to expand iPhone exports, shift more production from China to India at a faster pace, and grow its domestic market hits a Trump-sized roadblock.
India's current account deficit rose sharply in the quarter ended June 30 to $13.7 billion, from $4.5 billion a year ago, due to lower invisible surplus and growth in imports outpacing exports.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
The CAD was brought under control in 2013-14 after government imposed restrictions on import of gold. Following, this in 2014, certain restrictions were withdrawn.
The current account deficit widened to $10.1 billion or 2.1 per cent of GDP for the September quarter as against 1.2 per cent in the year-ago period.
The CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign currency, 'widened from 5.4 per cent in Q2 (July-September) to a record high of 6.7 per cent of GDP in Q3, driven mainly by large trade deficit' RBI said in its report on Balance of Payments.
Though trade deficit is expected to 'narrow' in 2013 driven by ongoing curb of gold imports and the gradual removal of fuel subsidies, the deficit will still be 'sizeable', it said.
Gold prices could hit the $3500 an ounce (oz) mark in the next 18 months - up around 13 per cent from the current levels - given the global uncertainties and aided by investment demand, said analysts at BofA Securities in a recent note. Uncertainty around Trump Administration trade policies, BofA said, could continue to push the US dollar (USD) lower, further supporting gold prices near-term.
The government has decided to postpone the release of the new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and extend the existing one by six months on account of global uncertainties and currency fluctuations. The government was scheduled to announce the new FTP by the end of September. The current policy was to end on September 30.
India's current account swung to a deficit for the first time in the current fiscal, with the gap coming at $1.7 billion or 0.2 per cent of the GDP in the December quarter. In the current fiscal, as the pandemic impacted trade, the current account had been in surplus in the previous two quarters, at $15.1 billion and $19 billion, respectively, as per the data on balance of payments released by the RBI on Wednesday. The critical measure of a country's external strength now stands at a surplus of 1.7 per cent of GDP for the first nine months of the fiscal year as against a deficit of 1.2 per cent in the year-ago period. In the December quarter, there was a rise in the merchandise trade deficit to $34.5 billion from $14.8 billion in the preceding quarter, and an increase in net investment income payments.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) $10 billion US dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction for three years received bids worth $16.23 billion on Friday, reflecting robust demand amid persistent liquidity deficit in the banking system. This was the second swap auction by the central bank after it infused $5 billion via six month-swap on January 31.
It would be a challenge to India's policy makers how to deal with Trump so that mutual economic growth remains sustained and mutual understanding on global issues are not hampered, observes Dr Rajaram Panda.
The government in FY26 Budget should announce an "effective" personal income tax cut to support consumption and demand, Barclays said on Thursday. In its FY25-26 Union Budget preview, Barclays said the key ask from the Budget, to be presented on February 1, is to support growth while adhering to fiscal consolidation path.
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